Better climate models predict worse outcomes for future marine ecosystems in our warming oceans

Lynne and Kelly are part of the Fisheries and marine ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP). The project’s most recent study, published in Nature Climate Change, uses new generation Earth System climate model projections as input to ecosystem models, showing “a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario.” The study found “regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes”, emphasizing that reducing uncertainty in model-projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change will be enormously helpful for enabling adaption strategies.